Thursday, August 20, 2015

A NATO and Russian Federation War Primer

A Not Very Pleasant Memory
 [MAD] A Few Gut Wrenching Decades
 of Mutually Assured Destruction Is Still Not Enough?

Dr. Strangelove, 1963 [image]
MeanMesa became one of many watching in stark terror as the US and the old Soviet Union -- each one bristling with literally thousands of quite credible intercontinental H-Bomb delivery systems -- scratched and clawed their way through the "Great Cold War Showdown." The reach of the grisly pogrom would not have been limited to the fictional "OK Corral," either. Those weapons [from both sides] were targeting population centers right along with military assets, and the estimates at the time predicted 350,000,000 [350 Mn] casualties in the first few hours after the ICBM first stage lift engines were ignited.

MeanMesa's experience was similar to most everyone else's -- even the prospect of such a general thermonuclear exchange transformed anyone paying attention into a raging psychopath during the 24 hour a day, decades long US-NATO-Soviet-Warsaw Pact nightmare. Only a very special, certain kind of human would have any appetite for returning to anything like this.

Meet Vladimir Putin.
Just a happy-go-lucky, Russian boy [image]
Some of us "got over" what we became during the M.A.D.'s Psycho Years 
Conversations during this Cold War period were marked by an almost universal concern that the two great ideological blocs would actually do it at some point, but in more modern times one of the irritating "quips" MeanMesa encounters concerning this is that "they would never have ever actually done it." Such Pollyannism [defined more politely as an "indulgent positivity bias..."] reveals evidence of a either a seriously depressing educational failure or a gravely dangerous "re-writing" of history.

This "indulgent positivity" is "back on the geopolitical front burner" when we consider the possibilities of a 2015-2016 version of the old anguish. Two revealing examples of Russian intransigence in dealing with the possibility of ever quietly accepting the fact that they have been bested can be seen in the North Sea Fleet supply depot incident of 1964 and the ultimate "blink" when confronted with Ronnie Raygun's Star Wars propaganda. Without burdening this post with too much history, a short review of each case remains germane to understanding this topic.

Example One: In July of 1964 the Soviet North Sea Fleet's main supply depot at Severomorsk, on the Barents Sea north of Murmansk, suffered a tremendous fire. The emergency continued for several days, leaving several hundred dead and perhaps several thousand injured. When the fire had finally been extinguished, US experts were speculating that the loss in stockpiled military armament had been so large that it had reduced the Soviet Union's capacity to conduct a conventional war to around 10 days -- total.

Faced with this sudden loss of military readiness for conventional [non-nuclear] war, more than a few of the Generals in the Soviet High Command recommended that Premier Khruschev immediately initiate a first strike against the US and NATO. Thankfully, the Premier declined this advice, although the incident almost certainly led to his retirement from the Kremlin [departure from office] in October of that year. [Read more 1964 Soviet Naval Blast Called Crippling - NYTIMES]

Example Two: Reagan's ambitious Cold War gambit, called the Strategic Defense Initiative, under development in the 1980's produced a marginally credible possibility that it could effectively degrade the Soviet ICBM deterrent force by protecting parts of the Continental US from attack. The cost to the US economy was in the trillions, but the Soviets were facing a comparable expenditure to counter SDI -- if it could really function as advertised. The components of the SDI system were never particularly successful in tests, but the US Administration prepared a series of "cartoons" depicting a very successful system which would be able to counter a Soviet ICBM attack.

Faced with the "lethal PR combination" of the cartoons plus the utterly flummoxing estimates for the cost of counter measures, the Kremlin "blinked." However, this "blinking" represented an even more serious PR problem for the Soviet leadership. The vast investment already made in the Soviet ICBM fleet had been justified by the claim that being armed this way amounted to a, well, "no blinking" capability to the Soviet Union's citizens. For this reason [along with a large collection of other geo-economic reasons, as well] the old Soviet Union finally "gave up the ghost" officially in December or 1991. [Read more Did Star Wars Help End the Cold War? - RussianForces]

The point here deals much more with the psychology of Russians in general than with the nuanced behavior of the Soviet Union. [Most of the background history concerning Russia held by Americans is based on experience with the Soviets more than with the "post Soviet" leadership of the Russian Federation.] Nonetheless, we may assume that this apparent inability to accept "being bested" internationally runs with the innate Russian bloodline just as much as with the nationalist ambitions of someone like Vladimir Putin. Vlad knows all about this, and he uses it as a principle technique in his propaganda.

We must also not disregard the same type of Russian "sensitivity" in matters of what Russian citizens perceive as international respect.

Deja Vu: Crimea as Vlad Putin's Sudetenland?
Wait! Haven't we been here before?

All this would be a bit academic except that it illustrates a specific combination of "motivations" which have influenced Russian behavior in the past. The first "motivation" deals with the total inability to countenance even minor setbacks in international relations -- including a full spectrum of diplomatic, geopolitical and military affairs. The second "motivation" is a question of respect which arises from a national outlook constructed from years of having the self-perceived view of being the "second class" laughing stock of more developed countries.

MeanMesa suspects that this outlook may have begun during Czarist times, perhaps even as early as when Czar Peter invited the French to introduce "European influences" into the Russian culture. The days of the brutal Revolution, the extreme difficulties faced by the new Communist state and the disastrous and embarrassing military bumbling at the beginning of WWII have all contributed "fuel to the fire" to produce this national appetite for recognition as a "great and powerful state."

The nationalist vent of the current propaganda stream issuing forth from Moscow has taken the expected course in faux priorities such a re-establishing a Russian "sphere of influence" comparable to those of the over-extended hegemony of the Soviets and the "repatriation" of theoretically Russian ex-patriots stranded in regions which have now extricated themselves from such suffocating Kremlin ambitions.

Sudetenland - 1938 [map source]
Predictably, the "pressing urgency" for this "repatriation" can be embellished with propaganda tales of oppression and discrimination, and Moscow has lived up to its Soviet reputation by taking on this PR assault "whole hog plus the postage." Ironically, the tactics and strategy so far have a chilling similarity to those of Germany at the beginning of its WWII expansion in Europe.

One of the Third Reich's first "cross border" adventures dealt with a similar scheme to repatriate the "oppressed Germans" living just outside the nation's border in Sudetenland. When this German incursion is compared to the recent Russian incursion -- and annexation -- of Crimea, the similarities yield an unsettling prescience.
Soviet Annexation of Romania 1945 [ MoldovanView]

The Soviets took their turn at this "repatriation and annexation" tactic as they patiently began to
 expand that "sphere of influence" to encompass post-war Eastern Europe. The example of their advances into Romania illustrates this. The same approach continued to be repeated until the cold, grey bastion of the Warsaw Pact had been created.

Now, we see yet another case of the same expansionist thrust, one still based on the "tried and true" model established in the 1940's. Vladimir Putin has prepared the stage for a significant number of additional, "absolutely necessary" repatriation and annexation adventures all across the region temporarily -- at least in Vladimir's view -- excluded from Russian influence after the fall of the Soviets.

Russian "Populations" Currently Outside the Russian Federation
"Russian speaking" or "Russian People?" [WorldBulletin]

These regional concentrations of "Russians" requiring Vladimir Putin's "repatriation efforts" [Particularly the ones located in the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine] organize the basic map of what he hopes will become "contested regions" in his contest with NATO and the West. However, the "fly in the ointment" turns out to be a pretty good sized fly.

Putin's validation for this potential "land grab" rests on shaky logical premises. One way to express this "shakiness" is to pose the questions: 

"Are these Russians?"

"Would they even like to be Russians?" 

"Is there some empirical means to determine if a person is really a 'Russian' by these criteria?" 

"Or, does the fact that a person was once a citizen of the old Soviet Union -- willingly or not -- legitimately establish that the same person should now [and always in the future] be a citizen of the Russian Federation?"

Of course Vladimir could not, in reality, care less about all these "repatriation" priorities. All the incendiary rhetoric is nothing more than fodder for his domestic political machinations.

Mapping Out the Coming War:
The Crimea Technique
Pay attention to the details;
we should expect to see them again.

As a means to stay abreast of this developing conflict, US conventional media coverage is useless. Reporting on this has, as usual, drawn corporate war lobbyists from every smelly little rats' nest, and these types enjoy full access to the network editorial boards which will, in turn, determine what corporate media content will be provided to the domestic audience. To date this has amounted to little more than an "American version" expressing the diametric opposites of the same propaganda "talking points" being broadcast by the Russian Federation media. If there were not a calendar marked clearly with the year "2015" here in the Galactic Headquarters office, MeanMesa could easily imagine that this was actually "news content" from the depths of the old Cold War in 1975.

Still, the blog must go ahead, so MeanMesa has reviewed a comprehensive collection of net-based analyses concerning the prospects of this developing conflict. It would be far too dramatic, at least at this point, to discuss this "interest conflict" as if it were at some intermediate step in an inexorable march to a full spectrum of direct combat in a European war. There are reasonable "odds" that no combat at all will result as the inevitable resolution of these competing ambitions "play out." On the other hand there are also reasonable "odds" for the converse outcome, and these "odds" reflect probabilities strong enough to merit, if not outright concern, at least heightened diligence. [If you happen to be a blog visitor with an appetite for prophecy, all that appears in the later stages of the post, but, happily, only one will be a MeanMesa prophecy.]

Not every war in history has been finally ignited by the "yellow press," but our record of recent exceptions to this rule is not reassuring, and in this case there happen to be at least two -- and possibly more -- "state supported," institutional, "yellow presses" each one with its respective speed controls locked firmly at "frantic."

The products of all these efforts -- both Russian and Western -- are ironically similar. Both are deeply complicit in two distinctly different, national apparitions of the same jingoistic war frenzy. Both represent evidence of the worst possible actors gleefully engaging in irresponsible war promotion, dutifully serving as sold out corporate media whores while masquerading as the equivalent of expert "pleasure girls" tempting the well known fears and desires of unwary national audiences.

A much more balanced overview of this is available from NATO, itself. Please take five minutes to view this video produced by NATO REVIEW Magazine in 2014:

After watching the video, reconsider the model portrayed in the media rhetoric.

War: Everybody Wins, Right?
Pulling the lobbyist strings to keep the puppets dancing.

The US billionaires, confronted with the real possibilities of what a "shooting war" with the Russian Federation might ultimately "deliver," face a heart wrenching dichotomy. Will they profit more by selling the arms which would be required -- and consumed -- by such a conflict, or will they profit more from a new wave of "cooperative" corporate involvement in the Federation's natural resource business -- especially crude oil and natural gas, and especially crude oil  and natural gas reserves to be "developed" by the Federation's Arctic exploration program.

This is an invitation to a waltz, one to be attended by three oligarchies, one controlling the EU, one controlling the US and one controlling the Russian Federation, but there are even more "similar souls" -- hopeful spinsters and aging bachelors -- desperately smiling as they wait impatiently along the ball room's mirrors.

This slow train wreck becomes even more "testy" when one considers that US and European billionaires are tempted to use US and NATO military muscle to extort Russian Federation acquiescence to "stabilize" the distribution of fossil fuel profits currently flowing to Russia from European and Chinese energy clients. When the voices of the eager bullet and missile salesmen are added to this bellicose chorus, only the arrival of the Mad Hatter remains to complete the attendee guest list so the banquet's meal can begin.

Challenger 2 Main Battle Tank - UK [image]

All the parties have been very busily arming themselves with the most lethal kinds of new weapons for decades. Remember -- even in times of relative peace and stability, weapons manufacturers have been constantly insisting on inventing and adding one new device after another to these national armories.

In the US we understand the magnitude of the cash flowing from the General Fund to these Pentagon "procurement contractors," but we are inclined to think that we are the only one of the "war players" doing this. Not the case -- the European and Russian Federation equivalents of these US war based, political power brokers are just as busy.

Sometimes this illicit ambition to influence national military policy is shockingly transparent. For example, while working very diligently to frame themselves as hapless, nuclear armed, "victims" surrounded by belligerent, ambitious neighbors, the Israelis sell 3 combat versions of their SPIKE anti- tank armament [i.e. anti-tank ordinance SPIKE anti-tank] to most of the military interests on the European "side" of this conflict.

The French raised Russian "hackles" when that government declined to sell the Russians new Mistral assault ships as previously agreed because of Crimea [Russia Pitch Poles French for Mistral Sale Renunciation- MoscowTimes and French Need Russian Approval to Sell Mistrals Elsewhere-RT], and the Russians have responded that, based on the original sales agreement, France now cannot sell the ships, already constructed, to Brazil without Russian approval of the deal.

MeanMesa's GOOGLE provides thousands of sites analyzing the likely outcome of this potential military confrontation should it materialize. A few fairly rational ones are provided here for blog visitors interested in such details.

[includes relevant and accurate links to analysis of other specific types military hardware]

There's Still Room for Some Old Time Religion
As if the cash side of this can't produce enough blood on its own.

The dirty shirt preachers of the US televangelist world will find the move from demanding war with Iran to demanding war with the Russian Federation a simple step. The burping and bellowing "GOP-Christians" in the Congress will, inevitably, fall in line to join the chorus once the "pastors" start with their explanations concerning how all of this was already foretold by St. John the Divine in his Revelations.

After all, St. John "revealed" that military forces from all the world must ultimately congeal around Israel to initiate the violent conflagration required to initiate the Second Coming, and the perfect way to energize the players for that rodeo can be a violent, bloody war all along the Russian Federation's Western border. [Interested in exploring an account of what the Second Coming might be like if it were to happen now? MeanMesa wrote an entertaining fiction dealing with this subject which is available FOR FREE as a Short Current Essays "e-book:" Secret of Paraneho Just link and enjoy!]

However, the "biblical imperative" to "justify" and "sanctify" this war is found in numerous places in the Bible's content, and -- assuredly, soon enough -- it will also be streaming forth from the myriad of domestic, tax exempt, war mongering, domestic televangelist franchises.  For example, [Ezekiel ch 38,39

GOD warns Iran (Persia), with Russia (Magog), and a coalition of allies (including Turkey, Libya, Sudan)will go to war and will invade Israel.  In Ezekiel 38-39 the Bible warns this coming war between Iran (Persia) and Israel will take place sometime after Israel has been re-gathered into Her land as a nation (which was fulfilled on May 14, 1948), [source]


Rosh as Russia itself, Meshech as Moscow, and Tubal equated with Tobolsk in Siberia, are relatively modern interpretations, as found in the Scofield Reference Bible and some 19th and 20th century interpreters. Many recent prophetic web sites still hold to the Russia theory and presumably await a re-ascendant Russia. [source]

Additionally, of course, there is the general reference to "world ending" combat sprinkled generously through other Biblical sections -- all, no doubt, will also be added to further embellish the "deified inevitability" of this looming, modern foreign relations disaster.

Matthew 24:6 You will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not frightened, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end.

Mark 13:7 When you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be frightened; those things must take place; but that is not yet the end.

Ezekiel 13:10 It is definitely because they have misled My people by saying, 'Peace!' when there is no peace. And when anyone builds a wall, behold, they plaster it over with whitewash;

Jeremiah 8:11 They heal the brokenness of the daughter of My people superficially, Saying, 'Peace, peace,' But there is no peace.

A single MeanMesa prophecy was promised, so here it is:

"If and when this war draws closer, we will be hearing every one of the biblical warnings and more on two hundred tax free, religious television channels and in the Congress."

And, by the way, it will probably all occur in the most frenetic days of the 2016 election.

includes relevant and accurate links to analysis of other specific military

Kiev fascist propaganda
world political response
US biblically political policy for second coming

If Iran and Russia continue to import nationals to Syria, that country could also become included. Collapse of the Assad regime would enhance the temptation.

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