Saturday, March 25, 2017

Republicans, Russians, and the End of Trump

Waiting For the Storm
Better get the cattle into the barn.

Just to "set the record straight," there is already much more evidence than necessary for the Republican Congress to successfully impeach Donald Trump. The pace at which contemporary geopolitical realities unfold makes the Congressional "drip, drip, drip -- wait and see" response far too hazardous for the Republic.

While the un-elected President storms through one day after the next destabilizing every aspect of the American culture he can successfully hit with a TWEET, there are, actually, some far more "material" changes patiently maturing in the background. The fact that a large majority of Americans are now -- officially -- terrified by this relentless surge of seemingly arbitrary "interruptions" in the normal flow of the democracy provides the explosive volatility which will, in the end, present the motive power needed for the upcoming violent "correction."

Where am I? Where's the bathroom?
Who are YOU?  [image]
The Republican Party, even when considered as a separate demographic from the majority of terrified Americans, is rapidly closing on its own "sober morning" after a few weeks of being embarrassingly inebriated with its new found power following the Trump election victory. All of us know that there "hangovers," but then there are also "HANGOVERS," and for the Republican looters this one promises to be a doozy -- that is to say, what's rapidly approaching the Grand Old Party is not going to be simply another "awkward" political moment.

No. We're talking "projectile vomiting," here.

Finally, we have to spend just a moment speculating about the identity of the "players" who are already fussing about the prospects of "straightening this out" before it gets any worse. At the moment there are simply no Democrats who can get involved -- meaning that there are simply no Democrats whom might be targeted for blame. All of the usual "Whose fault is this?" questions have evaporated into a politically irrelevant gas cloud after election night 2016. Not even the highly polished, professional "mouth junk" experts on the rancid right wing "news" outlets can thread together a "blame narrative" simple enough for the average Trumpkin to somehow find credible  -- or, in most cases, even comprehensible.

A GOP "Toothache" Inventory
The nearest syringe of Republican Novocaine is locked up
 in the Kremlin's basement poison pharmacy --
 you know, with the polonium.

At this point we pretty much know what series of events will encompass our nation as the Trump nightmare slowly -- "drip, drip, drip" -- floats painfully into America's nerve blocked memory. While the precise order of this sequence of events may remain a bit obscure, we can still have a look at the "list."

The Republican Party

The Republicans have already sealed their fate in terms of the 2018 mid term election. That is now scheduled for a little more than a year from now. 

What we have seen in Republican town hall meetings has been the political response to the GOP's obsession with turning Medicaid into tax cuts. When the additional "agonizers" of Republican ambitions to cut Medicare and Social Security benefits have had a chance to "grow their own field of weeds," those 2017, ACA town halls will look like Candy Land.

The billionaires have spent decades developing the voting demographic which "elected" Trump. Their think tanks have toiled mightily to slowly weave biblical religion into Republican ideology as they prepared the evangelicals' political role as dependable, stalwart supporters. The now thoroughly rancid, right wing media has managed to "round up" the stragglers.

But where does this leave the GOP future? The GOP has been relying on two, disparate  voter demographics. 

Although plenty of these fickle evangelical, beer hall "GOP dependables" are going to feel wounded by Trump's domestic economy, perhaps the most threatening development will be occurring on the Democratic side. If the deep bench of mindless Republican repeat voters is fading, the voting block of the 55% who wouldn't bother to vote is literally evaporating. By 2018 most of that 55% will have also been wounded, but more importantly, almost all of that 55% will have been terrified.

The non-voters in 2018 will be an astonishing small percentage. By far most of the voters with this "revitalized" interest whose faces will be appearing around the polling stations will be Democrats.

That will be "death on wheels" for the Congressional Republicans, the think tankers and the billionaires.

The Republican Party will have trouble "sobering up" after being drunk on power. At some point the GOP will have to abandon the Trump supporters and begin to attempt to rehabilitate the GOP Party brand with other, possibly more stable voters. The legislative legacy of this Congressional "binge" will have to be vacated -- if possible -- in hopes of re-establishing some form of politically viable voter base.

War and Foreign Relations

Even if it takes quite a while for President Trump to "get around" to packing the State Department with throw back toadies sympathetic to his authoritarian xenophobia, MeanMesa suspects that there will still be a shocking lack of bother experience and expertise. An alarming number of the "desks" [i.e. The Africa desk, etc.] are now occupied by "administrative fillers" relocated from very low echelon staff instead of the usual cadre of well educated, well traveled and well informed professionals. 

With the foreign ministries of "competing" world powers constantly "probing" the US policy [State Department policy...] for diplomatic and other vulnerabilities which could be developed into an advantage, we can assume that it will only be a matter of time until the US starts destructively colliding with a legacy of foreign policy accomplishments which have taken years to establish.

All of this turmoil will be conducted in the absence of most of the actually relevant experience of seasoned intelligence branch staffers. Trump never understood how this worked, what was its necessity and much less value of the "quiet" inheritance of years of experience at the trade. His delusional insistence that such matters "just had to be simple" will inevitably explode over some theatrical. international, political ploy sooner or later.

History might still reward Republicans if they move to truncate this disaster before it becomes nuclear.

Mad Dog Trump Supporters, Mad Dog Russians and Mad Dog Billionaires

If the United States manages to re-establish its government, there will almost certainly be plenty of sentiment to "punish" the Russian Federation for what Russian players have done to destroy the American democracy. This "discipline session" could be significantly more aggressive than, for example, the sanctions imposed after the Russian invasion of Crimea.

It's mine! Everything's MINE! [image]
One of Vladimir Putin's "wet dreams" has been the destruction of NATO. The Russian Federation can't compete with NATO and the EU -- especially not when the United States is squarely on the European side. However, Putin has managed to split off the United Kingdom with his propaganda support for the BREXIT program. We should expect to see similar interference in any EU country which might become vulnerable to the same style of grumbling nationalism. Current Russian Federation efforts are underway in France, Austria and the Netherlands with mixed results.

Likewise, the US billionaires who have invested so heavily in propping up the Republican Party are likely to run into their own version of such a "discipline session." This bunch has had a suspiciously "free reign" in US domestic political matters as they have methodically prepared the country to become an oligarchy, and as they have methodically positioned themselves to become the oligarchs.

The point here is that when the Russians see themselves slowly drifting into the frozen wilderness of the Laptev Sea, when the billionaires see themselves politically and socially ostracized after this coup attempt and when the Republican politicians see themselves being abandoned by their own voter base, we will encounter the "cornered bear" situation. None of these democracy hating, overly ambitious, "autocrat wanna-be's" will simply fold up shop and go home.

In terms of stability remaining in the current political structure of the Russian Federation there are simply not enough truly corrupt, blindly ideological enough oligarchs to "hold the line" for Putin much longer. NeitheRussian Federation meddling nor Russian ambitions have ended -- or even moderated --  with Trump's election.  Russian oligarchs and Putin want a "return on their investment."

The Body Count
There will be plenty of American blood
 between where we are and where we are going.

MeanMesa can, at this point, slip into an unusually cynical prediction. So far all the "policies" issued by the Trump Administration AND all of the "veiled threats" to depose him arising from the ranks of Democrats still willing to voice such "heresy" have been, essentially, theoretical. Both these warnings and the vicious possibilities of these "policies" have remained academic and, therefore, comfortably prophetic.

However, at some point which, far from theoretical, is now rushing toward us, all of these so far "future unpleasantries" will "come home to roost." There is scant possibility that any of them will fail to materialize. MeanMesa sees no available "organizational scheme" which might deliver the less painful outcome of "dodging the bullet."

As Americans we should now prepare for a bullet wound.

Further, in this dance with reality, we can even identify those social/cultural demographics most likely to wind up as serious casualties from the "Trump experiment" before it can be terminated. Here, MeanMesa will provide an abbreviated list of seven developments we can probably expect.

The Seven "Sticks of Wet Dynamite"
 in the Trunk of Trump's Pinto

Everything seems to be going GREAT, so far! [image]

1. Ryan's - Trump"s "Health Insurance" Scheme

The GOP health care investment scheme will produce thousands of dead Americans from lack of basic health care. The "mega-death" phase of this will occur later, but the casualty count will begin surprisingly quickly. During the preparation of this post, this GOP "health insurance" law cratered in the House, but MeanMesa suspects that after a few "fine tuning," legislative adjustments, the Koch brothers will release their Freedom Caucus Representatives and allow the thing to pass.

At that point it will be a contest between how many succumb by reason of no care and how many are simply forced into bankruptcy as they try to stay alive.

2. Sharing War Profits Among GOP Players

As Trump's political alternatives will steadily decrease, and he will be faced with a constantly more urgent to initiate a war for political cover. Here, the Republican looters presently controlling the Congress will present themselves in "eager complicity" because the Pentagon procurement contracts -- standing to profit from the adventure -- will be "greasing their wheels" with generous campaign donations and other bribes. Entering a war, no matter how gaseous the justification, will sell well with a base of Trump voters who will, by this time, be infuriated for all sorts of reasons. Although the most likely "targets" of this soon to be launched "conflict of necessity" seem to be Iran, North Korea or Syria, there is simply no telling where the unstable soul int he Oval Office might "point his bile" when the time arrives.

3. Which Republicans Will Get to be the "Head Crooks?"

Congressional Republicans and establishment oligarchs still hiding in the image of the traditional Republican brand's image will be forced into a corner as they face the hard choice of continuing to support the President in hopes of accumulating even more wealth from the General Fund or dumping him because he is a more potent looter than even they are, and he's not leaving many scraps on the "tax revenue" table for them or sharing deregulation "Thank You" gifts from billionaires and corporations.

4. Climate Change is "Politically Independent"

Notwithstanding Trump's obsessive and continuous denial of climate change, this country and the world may easily begin to feel more than just "the nip of the wringer" while Trump's Presidency is collapsing into chaos. This is a very material item on the Defense Department's "threat assessment list" already.

We're no longer talking "distant future," here.

5. If Trump Doesn't Repay the Russians, They'll "Repay" Themselves

Putin and his oligarchic crime family have taken risks and invested heavily in "assisting" Trump's unusual ascendance to power in the US. Naturally, under their direction the Russian Federation military is now eager to "reap the benefits." However, Trump may not be able to deliver the promised disruption in NATO and the new American policy of "tolerating" Russian military incursions into the old Soviet satellite nations which have now adopted forms of more or less normal democracy -- along with a disturbingly, friendly affinity for the EU and NATO.

After receiving such valuable "favors," Trump will not fight the Russians, but even the greediest Republicans in the Congress [both House and Senate] are leery of Putin -- possibly the only violent looter on the planet more avaricious and deadly than they are.

There is already more than a truckload of Russian corpses of people who dared stand in the way.

6. How High Will the Casualty Count Go for Trump's War?

This unstable, un-elected President will take the "war course book" from the last unstable, un-elected Republican President, George W. Bush. Bush's wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were, respectively, initiated for craven domestic political advantage and as a money making seizure thinly disguised as an "oil procurement adventure."

They lasted for decades -- thanks primarily to utterly failed political leadership -- and cost trillions. Compared to what Trump will likely attempt, Bush W. will look like a military genius.

7. "Country Style" Civil War at the Hands of the Disillusioned Trumpkins

Trump supporters already felt disillusioned -- that is why they voted for Trump. After the sold out heavy weights in the Congress frustrate Trump's "big plans for the forgotten Americans" and Trump, himself, continuously contradicts his "promises" of relief for the "deplorables," these Trump voters will become even more alienated, frustrated and disillusioned.

Trump supporters' response to impeachment will be violent, but civil war requires regionality and territorial organization to become active. Current Trump supporters' xenophobic episodes of specific violence will increase but remain as laughably, impotently pathetic as has been the case thus far.

Many of them, however, will become dangerously violent.

Although these disgruntled "victims" may imagine that they are initiating another civil war, the actual outcome of these outbursts will, most likely, amount only to pathetic instances of crime -- not particularly similar to events in the 1860s.

This said, the violence will still be palpably real and wide spread.

No comments:

Post a Comment